２６年度　学術交流支援資金　最終報告書　　　環境情報学部 ティースマイヤ・リン教授

プロジェクト　　サステーナブル　デベロップメント

研究題名　リスクシナリオの下にある中国南部から東南アジア地域へのインパクトを計る

　　　　（Regional Impacts in Southeast Asia under China’s“Risk Scenario”）

総括

China’s current slowdown in economic growth, and rising financial risks, affect not only the People’s Republic of China but also its trading partners in Southeast Asia. The 4-country area that includes Yunnan Province of China, northern Laos, northern Thailand, and northern Myanmar is providing resources and labor potentials that should help to overcome China’s current slump as well as the risk to the national economies of the 4 countries involved; and this Quadrangle is connected by a network of new highways and energy pipelines that reduce some costs. But these infrastructures themselves also impact the environment and its rural livelihoods in unsustainable ways, pushing local cost burdens, and therefore risks, higher.  

In this research, 4 impacted resource and labor-supplying areas were surveyed with a team from China, Japan and Southeast Asia as mentioned below. The areas of resource extraction and construction of infrastructures are almost entirely in rural, food-producing land. Both environmental resource use as well as the potential for damage to rural livelihoods were surveyed. Potentials for and interest in Clean Development Mechanisms that preserve and sustain environments and livelihoods temporarily weakened by industrial development were surveyed, but the salient finding involved the political risks that now begin to accompany the environmental ones along the “resource route”.

China’s “Go Out” strategy (走出去戦略) and its economic reliance on neighboring regions including Southeast Asia were again mentioned by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang(李克強). The current emphasis is on resource extraction, including water, minerals, oil, and gas. This survey was conducted in the upper area of Southeast Asia bordering on China: �@Fang in northern Thailand, whose oil refinery was approached by a Chinese firm to provide oil (possibly through a new pipeline); �Athe Jinghong Dam (景洪堰) and the Ganlanba Dam (橄榄坝) in southern Yunnan Province; �B the oil and gas pipeline going from the western Myanmar coast to China (the Sittwe– Baoshan pipeline of Shwe Oil and Gas Company), which has uptaken land all along its 770 kilometres; �C the area where Northern Myanmar borders the planned Guangpo Dam in the Wa – Kokang ethnic conflict areas.

The findings showed that environmental risks that accompany livelihood risks include cropland loss and forest loss due to the construction of cross-border economic development projects, including monoculture rubber plantations that replace local forest; transport highways; large-scale hydropower projects; and production facilities and refineries. They include the hazardous waste emissions from these new facilities, but also include a potential for clean development where low-cost waste filtration has been adopted. Specifically, the land converted for transport infrastructures and new oil and gas pipelines use was almost entirely either food-producing agricultural land or livelihood-supporting forest land. One result is that as these areas’ re-located cultivators are experiencing livelihood loss, the domestic food supply of each nation is tipping over into food insecurity.

Second, ecological services provided by the appropriated areas of land and forest are no longer functioning. Examples include the rapid worsening of air quality in northern Thailand due to the new deforestation accompanying cross-border industry; and the excessive warming and drying of the local climate due to the decreasing areas of forest and watersheds.

The region continues to experience new construction for regional energy, transport, and industrial development. The new, faster overland highways to Southeast Asian ports are an important way of lowering financial burdens and the risks of distribution and markets. However, they are now occupying thousands of hectares of ecologically serviceable, clean, food-producing land, meaning that new risks have arisen. This research measured sample areas and populations as to these risks, in the following manner. The deforestation, drying, and warming surrounding new development projects were measured through calculations based on-site surveys, land use maps, and through their impact on air quality, temperature, and water scarcity. Next, food insecurity and livelihood insecurity were measured through qualitative surveys with on-site communities, and correlated to land loss through land transfers along strategic infrastructures such as hydropower projects, pipelines, and highways. These methods were also used for the livelihood change measurements.

教育・学習のための交流・学際的な学び　

First, both graduate (修士課程) and undergraduate (研究会の履修者) students gained knowledge and materials from 3 aspects of this research project:  �@ the Fieldwork in Asia;  �A the materials and documentation, including written, digital, and visual, gathered from the fieldwork; and �B the acquaintance with the Research Institutions and experts outside of Japan who are listed below (学術交流の対象者や施設).

For the students of my 研究室、there were 2 other, related Field Research and study tours that provided an environmental-studies practicum and a knowledge base for comparison. �@ The ASEAN Study Tour in Minamata, Japan, and �A the Fieldwork trips supervised by Professor Doko in Fujiyoshida City, provided both a conceptual and practical background on these issues. Participants researched and surveyed the environmental impacts of industrial development and their potential solutions.

学術交流共同研究の研究活動

I．学術交流の対象者や施設

雲南省社会科学院　朱振明院長

タイ チェンマイ大学社会科学部　リワー・ぱータイソーン＝チャイパニット博士

ミャンマー学術振興会運営員マウン・マウン・アイ博士

ミャンマー環境経済研究所研究担当　ウィン・ミィント博士

米国　ウッドロウ・ウィルソン国際研究センター中国環境フォーラムのコーディネーターのジェニファー・L・ターナー博士

同研究センター中国環境研究副担当　サーザン・チャン・シフレット

シンガポール　南洋理工大学　五风湿 博士

世界銀行環境部上席研究担当　ジュディス・ムアー　博士

II. 研究活動(詳細)

時間順の現地調査や会議

研究活動

1. ８月８日〜１９日　米国

l 9日〜13日　ボストン周辺・以北（洪水地での環境調査）

l 14日〜18日　ワシントン：ウッドロウ・ウィルソン国際研究センター中国環境フォーラム　（中国環境の現状や新政策についての会議）

2. ８月１１日−９月４日　

l 中国雲南省景洪市　M1の潘賽一の研究（経済面でも実行可能がある持続可能な農産物の生産についての研究）

l ミャンマー北部、中国雲南省、タイ北部での現地調査(ティースマイヤ、関根)

3. ３月１９日〜３１日　　米国

l ボストン　ハーバード大学コンコード生物・生態系観察所への訪問

l ニュー・ヨーク　ミャンマー環境専門家との会議をビデオ撮影した会社との会議

l ワシントン　国際研究センター中国環境フォーラム（中国のエネルギー需給による中国の周辺国の環境へのインパクトについての会議）

研究成果

１．現地調査について

研究の対象地はほぼ、こうした研究は現場でされていない地域で行われた。

This research took place in areas and among populations that have never before been surveyed for these particular indicators: Kutkai and Lashio in Myanmar(ミャンマー北部クッカイ地区、カチン族、タッアン族、パラウン族が昔ながら農村生活を送っている共同体)、Jinghong and Meng Hai districts of Xishuangbanna, southern Yunnan Province (雲南省、西双版纳の景洪市外及び猛海地区), and Fang in Thailand（タイ国北部中国とのエネルギー原料などの貿易が急増しているファーン郡）。

２．ファインディング：

Development projects that are part of the Golden Quadrangle development initiative have come to be clustered in and along the same routes and natural resource access channels. These consist of the two large rivers (Salween and Mekong) and their dams; the Asian Highways that parallel them in part; the minerals and mining projects that continue to be developed between China and its neighbors and are also making use of the new energy and logistics infrastructures in the same regions; and the oil and gas pipelines that run from Myanmar into China at the Yunnan border. These projects fall under China’s “going global” policy, also termed the “Go Out” policy. Yet while the hydropower dams in along the Mekong constitute significant barriers to navigation, China has already funded blasting projects along the Mekong at the Myanmar - Laos border in order to create deeper channels for cargo ship navigation. Further, the new oil and gas pipeline project running from Myanmar to southern China was to have included a railway along the pipeline, somewhat parallel to but distant from the current Asian Highway from Mandalay to Yunnan province. In a somewhat similar fashion, the Nu Jiang / Salween dams are along stretches of the river that also include nearby mines and new road infrastructure. Such clustering is economically as well as geographically and topographically more feasible. But it easily leads to much greater, and possibly catastrophic, pressures on the already overused environments within the cluster. 

Further, a growing problem concerns the political rights of populations who have lost land and environmental resources to the new projects. The governance of local areas and especially of environmental and natural resources among local dwellers who directly depend upon these resources does also exist, as customary law and traditional law. As a result, downstream communities of the Mekong and Salween in Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand have seen growing protests resulting in fatal clashes with national military and police in the period (September 2014 to February 2015) immediately following this survey. The current violent and lethal conflict between the Wa ethnic group of both China and Myanmar, and others, in the Kutkai - Kokang region on the Myanmar – China border can also be seen as one result of being the highly contested site of some of China’s planned dams along the transboundary Nu Jiang / Salween river, the proposed Guangpo (光坡) Dam on China’s side and the proposed Kunlong dam on Myanmar’s. Another such site conflict has been the area west of Muse on the Myanmar side up to Baoshan on the China side, the area of land loss due to the oil and gas pipeline and also where the Sai Ge dam construction may be starting. Thousands of people who were evicted or lost livelihoods in these areas have been injured in the recent conflicts, have fled across the borders or fled deeper into Myanmar, creating burdens of shelter and economic welfare for both countries. Policies for environmental sustainability that take local economies and livelihoods into account need strengthening and implementation.

３．学術論文・学術論文発表・義塾内で利用される資料作成

1. 学術論文発表Nanyang Technology Institute, Singapore（南洋理工大学国際研究大学院）にて (2014年10月31日)“Mekong River Transboundary Mangement Issues in the 21^st century: Yunnan Province and its Southern Neighbors.”

2. 学術論文出版予定“China’s Transboundary Water Management“ (英国、Routledge出版社へ送られた)

3. 慶應義塾大学・JST開催　第5回EIシンポジウム　（2015年3月4日）でのディスカッション資料

4. 授業資料 The new digital materials from the surveys (videos, audio interviews, and still photos) have been used in 26年度for classes (研究会・先端研究・地域開発論), and for presentations to local governments and institutes. They will be added to the visual database of mainland Southeast Asia maintained in ティースマイヤ研究室。

参考資料

堀井伸浩編『中国の持続可能な成長−資源・環境制約の克服は可能か？』日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所　2010年

竹原美佳　「2012年の中国における石油・天然ガス需給関連動向」　JOGMEC　2013年

竹原美香　「中国：油価下落と2015年の石油需給」JOGMEC　2015年1月19日

朱振明　（2010）“China’s Opening-up Strategy and Its Economic Relations with ASEAN Countries – A Case Study of Yunnan Province.”  IDE-JETRO　Discussion Paper No. 435.

Goh, Evelyn (2007). Developing the Mekong: Regionalism and regional security in China-Southeast Asian relations (International Institute for Strategic Studies / Routledge).

Ishida, Masami, ed. (2013) Border Economies in the Greater Mekong Subregion . Palgrave Macmillan IDE-JETRO Series.

Khittasangka, Makha et al. eds (2007) Sustainable Development for Peace: New Dimensions of Friendly Cooperation in the Upper Greater Mekong Sub-region. Chiang Rai: Chiang Rai Rajabhat University.

Lim, Hank and Yasuhiro Yamada, eds. (2014) Myanmar's Integration with Global Economy: Outlook and Opportunities. Bangkok: IDE Bangkok Research Center.

森晶寿（編）『東アジアの経済発展と環境政策』ミネルヴァ書房 2009 年

日経ヴェリタス2014/4/13号「中国リスクシナリオ回避へ躍起」p.7.

Thiesmeyer, L.　（2012）China’s Environmental Policy and its Southern Neighbors,” Journal of Asian Public Policy 5 (2)，2012 年 7 月号p.199-p. 213.

Ye Tao, Peijun Shi, Jing’ai Wang, Lianyou Liu, Yida Fan, and Junfeng Hu. “China’s Drought Disaster Risk Management: Perspective of Severe Droughts in 2009–2010.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 84 - 97.  (doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0009-z)

Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. National Environmental Performance Assessment Report. Yunnan Provincial Environmental Protection Bureau, 2014.