2001年度 森基金 成果報告
研究課題名: “トルコ=ブルガリア 国境地域における協力研究”
慶應義塾大学 政策・メディア研究科
修士課程 一年
杤尾 圭亮
“
to The Balkan States’ Stability”
Introduction
Up
until today, there were a lot of attempts to restore the stability in the
Balkan States. And these attempts formed one concrete cooperation system, and
this system continued to be improved. However in spite of these efforts, the
Balkan States is still unstable. One of most critical factors why the situation
is not improved is that,
In
the chapter 1, I will confirm about the importance of the Balkan Stability for
In the chapter 2, I will characterize the present cooperation system
by following the history of the Balkan States from 1990. As whole, the
cooperation has been changed since the collapse of the
And in the chapter 3, I will focus on the concrete cooperation
programme, and clarify about how
1. The Importance of the Stability for
First
of all, before analyzing the cooperation in the Balkan States, I should explain
about the importance of the restoring stability for
Political Side
About
the political side, the restoring stability in the Balkan States is very
important in two Turkish political development processes. One is the accession
process toward EU, and the other is the solution process about problems between
First,
in Turky’s accession process toward EU, the
contribution to the stability of the Balkan States is one of the critical
factors. In the 2001 Regular Report, [1]the
relation between
Secondly,
on the peaceful relation with
Economic Side
About
the economic side, it is essential for
The
first one is about the possibility of Turkish international trade with the
Balkan States. At present, [7]the
Turkish export proportion of GDP is just 23%. This trade rate tended to be
increased with the EU member countries, but except the Balkan States. About 60%
of all was traded with only the EU, and less than 10% is about the Balkan
States. One of causes why the trade relation is not active is that, this region
is too unstable for
The
second one is about the Turkish economical cost of the conflict. In this part,
I will show you Kosovo crisis as one of conflicts in this region. In this
conflict, [8]the
IMF tried to estimate the cost of this conflict toward neighboring countries.
Unfortunately, the Turkish cost was not estimated. However, this report
indicated two damages toward Turkish economy. The first one is about the
deteriorating direct trade relations with those neighboring countries. However,
as I mentioned above, more important fact is that
2. The History of the Cooperation toward the Stability
As
I mentioned above, the restoring stability in the Balkan States is important
for
As
a whole, this 1990s is separated two ages, one is the age when there was no
strategic cooperation system, and the other is the age when the new cooperation
system was started and improved.
The First Half of 1990s
During
the first half of 1990s, it was difficult for the Balkan States to build the
functional cooperation system for the stability. After the collapse of the
The Second Half of 1990s
However,
especially after the
Firstly,
each Balkan country’s attitude was changed, because the cost of conflicts is
too high for each Balkan State. As I mentioned above, the former Yugoslavian
conflict and the Kosovo conflict proved that the cost is too expensive. [14]In
the case of Kosovo conflict, the financing need for the Kosovo crisis will be 2
billion dollars at least, it will be equal to 2.5% of the GDP in most affected
six countries. In accordance with this recognition, they tried to change their
foreign policies. For example, [15]in
the case of
Secondly,
the EU changed her mind too. From 1995, most of central and eastern countries
applied their wish officially, and in 1997 the EU proposed “AGENDA 2000” as a
answer toward them. Through these processes, the grant aid scheme PHARE was
expanded all candidate countries, and at present, PHARE is separated three
programme, ISPA, SAPPARD, and PHARE, by depending on their aims. Factors why
the EU changed her attitude are obviously as same as the other Balkan States’
cases. So that, in the EU the cost of conflicts of neighboring was too big to
deal with. According to the OECD, [16]compared
with most affected six countries the direct economic damage of the Kosovo
conflict is not so tremendous in
At
last, the international organizations which contain the EU and most of European
countries try to support positively other Balkan countries who can not apply
the accession process. The most significant example is the Stability Pact, which
was launched in 1999 by most of main international organizations and supporting
partners. The role of these organizations in the cooperation system is thought
to adjust and reallocate the whole aid from every supporter toward the Balkan
States for the purpose joining the EU.
As
a whole in this cooperation system the EU and EU’s
programme scheme are main elements, and as a reinforcing element, the bilateral
and the multilateral system are working. So far, this cooperation looks to work
well. Most of the Balkan States try to integrate under the new name “
Weak Points of 21st Century’s Cooperation
However,
in spite of these efforts, this cooperation system is still immature, because
of some critical factors. In this third section, I will explain about two main
factors. One is about the relationship between
Firstly,
for the mature cooperation, the reconciliation between
However
especially since [21]1993,
because of the success of
Secondly,
the programme scheme of the EU still has some problems. After the
3. The Concrete Policy to Access to the Balkan
Cooperation
In the chapter 1 and 2, I confirmed about the meaning to join the cooperation for the Balkan Stability and the present cooperation system in this region. Therefore, in this last chapter, I will think about two phase, one is the section which accelerate the process of restoring stability, the other is concrete polices to cooperate for restoring stability in this region.
The Cooperative Sector
Firstly, I will think about the concrete method how to restore the stability in the Balkan States. Although most of articles agreed with the point that the macro economic stability is main factor to reform everything, concrete methods are diverse. However, in this report, I want to emphasize the possibility of the transport infrastructure programme which promote the cooperation in this region. Firstly, [26]the completing whole transport system in the Balkan States means stimulating investments and trades in this region. Secondly, for reinforcing the present cooperation system, this programme is proper. As I mentioned already, the present cooperation system is mainly supported by the EU assistance scheme based on the future accession. In other word, because the Balkan States could not build up their own region for themselves, the EU supported so heavily. However the main system of this EU cooperation is based on the bilateral relations between the EU and each country. Therefore in this system, the factor that deepens the interdependence of the Balkan States is lacked. At the same time, [27]in regard to previous conflicts, the disintegration of the nation sate should not be occurred. However because of the radical reform of both economy and politics, the border region might be kept leave alone. Therefore, because in this region the border region must not be a bottleneck for the stability, the transport infrastructure through all over the Balkan States is needed.
However
at the same time, some scholars criticized this cooperation of the transport
sector as a new conflict stage in the Balkan States. [28]Firstly,
as the whole Balkan transport infrastructure, the Trans-Balkan highway, which
start from Varna-Sofia-Skopje-Tirana, was proposed. However,
against this project, both
The Concrete Policy How Can
At
last, I want to touch about the concrete policy about how
Firstly,
this programme is fruitful for
Secondly,
in regard to Turkish national interests, this programme is valuable. At present,
because
At
last, I want to touch about the Turkish Foreign policy. However, the method how
Conclusion
In
this essay, I described about the importance of
Bibliography
Articles
1.
Tsoukalis, Loukas. “
2.
Turan, Ilter; Barlas,
Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and
cooperation in the Balkans.”, East
European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter 1998, pp469-488
3.
Panpadereou, George. “Debalkanize the Balkans.”, New Perspectives Quarterly Vol. 18 No. 1,
Winter 2001, pp43-46
4.
Bildt, Carl. “A second chance in the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol. 80 No. 1, Jan./Feb. 2001, pp148-158
5.
Bugajski, Janusz. “Balkan in dependence?.”, Washington Quarterly Vol. 23 No.4,
Autumn 2000, pp177-192
6.
Steil, Benn.; Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”,
Foreign Affairs Vol.78 No. 6,
Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105
7.
Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan
cooperation after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.”,
Documents
1.
“The Economic Consequences of
the Kosovo Crisis: An Updated Assessment”, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff of the International Monetary Fund in
consultation with the World Bank staff Approved by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid, May 25, 1999
2.
“THE ROAD TO STABILITY AND
PROSPERITY IN
3.
“2001 REGULAR
4.
“
5.
“Trans European Transport
Network 14 priority projects, project 7 Greek Motorway”, European Commission,
1998
News Articles
1.
“
2.
Ron Synovitz,
“Romania/Bulgaria: Agreement On Transport Corridor Around
3.
Breffni O'Rourke, “
4.
Robert McMahon, “UN: Balkan
Instability Feeds Rise In Crime”, Radio Free
5.
“
6.
“Vladimir Putin
Upholds
HP references
Southeast Europe Cooperative Initiative; http://www.unece.org/seci/Welcome.html
Economic Reconstruction And Development in South East Europe; http://www.seerecon.org/
Representation of
the European Commission in
Balkan Task Force; http://www.grid.unep.ch/btf/
Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of
United Nation
Economic Commission for
The EU Home Page
about the enlargement toward
http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/turkey/index.htm
TINA Home Page; http://www.tinavienna.at/
[1] “2001
REGULAR
[2] “2001 REGULAR
[3] Tsoukalis, Loukas. “
[4] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and
cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter
1998, pp469-488
[5] “
[6]
“2001 REGULAR
[7] “
[8] “The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo
Crisis: An Updated Assessment”,
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff
of the International Monetary Fund in consultation with the World Bank staff
Approved by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid,
May 25, 1999
[9] Breffni O'Rourke,
“
[10] see annex map 1
[11] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the
disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998,
pp377-394
[12] Steil, Benn.;
Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs
Vol.78 No. 6, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105
[13] Steil, Benn.;
Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs
Vol.78 No. 6, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105
[14] “The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo
Crisis: An Updated Assessment”,
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff
of the International Monetary Fund in consultation with the World Bank staff Approved
by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid, May 25, 1999
[15] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the
disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998,
pp377-394
[16] Breffni O'Rourke,
“
[17] Robert McMahon, “UN: Balkan Instability
Feeds Rise In Crime”, Radio Free
[18] Tsoukalis, Loukas. “
[19] same resource
[20] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and
cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter
1998, pp469-488
[21] same resource
[22] “Vladimir Putin
Upholds
[23] Bugajski, Janusz. “Balkan in dependence?.”, Washington Quarterly Vol.
23 No.4, Autumn 2000, pp177-192
[24] same resource
[25] same resource
[26] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the
disintegration of Yugoslavia.”,
[27] Bildt, Carl. “A
second chance in the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol. 80 No. 1, Jan./Feb. 2001,
pp148-158
[28] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and
cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter
1998, pp469-488
[29]
refer the following TINA HP;
http://www.tinavienna.at/
[30] “Trans European Transport Network 14
priority projects, project 7 Greek Motorway”, European Commission, 1998
[31] refer the followingn
HP; http://www.seerecon.org/RegionalInitiatives/TTFSE/
[32] refer the following HP; http://www.unece.org/seci/seci.htm