2001年度 森基金 成果報告

 

研究課題名: “トルコ=ブルガリア 国境地域における協力研究”

慶應義塾大学 政策・メディア研究科

修士課程 一年

杤尾 圭亮

 

 Turkey’s Road

to The Balkan States’ Stability”

 

 
Introduction

              Up until today, there were a lot of attempts to restore the stability in the Balkan States. And these attempts formed one concrete cooperation system, and this system continued to be improved. However in spite of these efforts, the Balkan States is still unstable. One of most critical factors why the situation is not improved is that, Turkey did not take part in this cooperation positively. Moreover, this Turkish direction made Turkey suffered terrible pain. Therefore, in this essay, I will talk about the present and future relation between Turkey and the Balkan States. For this purpose, I will prepare following three strategies.

              In the chapter 1, I will confirm about the importance of the Balkan Stability for Turkey by analyzing some phases, one is about the political side, and the other is about the economic side.

In the chapter 2, I will characterize the present cooperation system by following the history of the Balkan States from 1990. As whole, the cooperation has been changed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, I will confirm the process of this change, and at the same time, I will clarify what the present cooperation is.

And in the chapter 3, I will focus on the concrete cooperation programme, and clarify about how Turkey will take part in the cooperation in the near future. As the cooperative part, I will analyze the transport sector. And after that, I will show you some programmes about this sector.

 


1. The Importance of the Stability for Turkey

              First of all, before analyzing the cooperation in the Balkan States, I should explain about the importance of the restoring stability for Turkey. If the necessity for the stability is small, we can not recommend Turkey to join the cooperation more actively. However if it is enormous big, it means that Turkey should take part in this region’s cooperation. Therefore in this first chapter, I will emphasize the meaning of the stability for Turkey, by analyzing two sides, the political side and the economical side.

 

Political Side

              About the political side, the restoring stability in the Balkan States is very important in two Turkish political development processes. One is the accession process toward EU, and the other is the solution process about problems between Greece and Turkey.

              First, in Turky’s accession process toward EU, the contribution to the stability of the Balkan States is one of the critical factors. In the 2001 Regular Report, [1]the relation between Greece and Turkey was focused on, as political criteria. In this political criteria section, it is written that, the Turkish improvements are recognized but still needed to be taken more. It means that Turkey is one of the unstable factors for the stability of this region. In addition, [2]the EU emphasized that Turkey should contribute the stability in this region in the section “CFSP” and “External relations”. The EU recognized Turkey as “an important actor in the stability and security in the region”. Hence, the active playing this role for the stability will lead the accelerating the accession process.

              Secondly, on the peaceful relation with Greece, the cooperation with Greece for the stability has another significant meaning. The present atmosphere is positive for the resolving a number of problems two countries have. Therefore, the cooperation for the regional stability will make them resolve these problems easier. Until 1995, both countries’ attitudes toward this region tended to compete against each other. For example, [3]about the name of Macedonia, Greece persisted in refusing the recognition of this name only by the nationalistic policy. On the contrast, [4]Turkey tried to make some strong relations with Macedonia, because Turkey wanted to be against Greece. And this situation deteriorated problems which both countries had, [5]and in 1996 because of the Cyprus problem these two countries went nearly to the war. However the present atmosphere is very different from the last decade’s one. Because of the accession process and some strategic projects, the relation is improved significantly. [6]About the Aegean problems, the confidence building measures were decided by June 2001. Therefore, it will reinforce this bilateral relation to make stronger cooperation about the Balkan States’ stability in this positive atmosphere.

 

Economic Side

              About the economic side, it is essential for Turkey to restore the stability in the Balkan States. In this section, from two economic sides I will emphasize the importance of the stability in this region.

              The first one is about the possibility of Turkish international trade with the Balkan States. At present, [7]the Turkish export proportion of GDP is just 23%. This trade rate tended to be increased with the EU member countries, but except the Balkan States. About 60% of all was traded with only the EU, and less than 10% is about the Balkan States. One of causes why the trade relation is not active is that, this region is too unstable for Turkey to estimate the concrete economic cost and benefit. Therefore, the leading stability in this region means that Turkey can have strong economical relation with them.

              The second one is about the Turkish economical cost of the conflict. In this part, I will show you Kosovo crisis as one of conflicts in this region. In this conflict, [8]the IMF tried to estimate the cost of this conflict toward neighboring countries. Unfortunately, the Turkish cost was not estimated. However, this report indicated two damages toward Turkish economy. The first one is about the deteriorating direct trade relations with those neighboring countries. However, as I mentioned above, more important fact is that Turkey missed the chance of creating new economical relations, because of the risk of unstable refugees and the possibility of new conflicts. The second damage is about the transport infrastructures. At that time and still now, [9]the main land transport system which Turkey depended on was the road and rail road from Istanbul-Sofia-Beograd-Budapest, named [10]“Corridor 10”. Therefore, this Yugoslavian conflict meant the paralysis of this main transport system. Alternative methods, water transport and air transport, were available. However the cost of sudden changing was enormous. And some proportion of economic activities was declined. Therefore, the decreasing the possibility of conflicts, such a Kosovo conflicts will benefit Turkish stable economic activities.

             


2. The History of the Cooperation toward the Stability

              As I mentioned above, the restoring stability in the Balkan States is important for Turkey in both economical and political meanings. However before describing how Turkey will take part in the cooperation, I must confirm the present cooperation system. Therefore, in this chapter 2, I will explain about the present cooperation system through the 90s’ history.

              As a whole, this 1990s is separated two ages, one is the age when there was no strategic cooperation system, and the other is the age when the new cooperation system was started and improved.

 

The First Half of 1990s

              During the first half of 1990s, it was difficult for the Balkan States to build the functional cooperation system for the stability. After the collapse of the Soviet Union,[11] the Balkan States tended to attempt some cooperation. This age is called “The Gold Era”. However, although a lot of intergovernmental meetings were held in this age, the gravity to integrate the Balkan States was too weak, because most of the Balkan States could not afford to deal with the integration. In addition, [12]this uncooperative situation made them to wish to be one of European countries, rather than the poor Balkan State. However toward their wishes, the EU and other international organizations did not react positively. Therefore most of reforms were delayed or failed, and on the contrary only the division proceeded in both the region and the nation. [13]It is said that this is the main reason why the ethnicity division was exploded after the 50 year’s silence.

 

 

The Second Half of 1990s

              However, especially after the Dayton agreement in 1995, the strategic cooperation system was started to be equipped. There are a lot of factors to change the cooperation system, in this section I will explain some critical factors, and following concrete peculiarities of this cooperation system .

              Firstly, each Balkan country’s attitude was changed, because the cost of conflicts is too high for each Balkan State. As I mentioned above, the former Yugoslavian conflict and the Kosovo conflict proved that the cost is too expensive. [14]In the case of Kosovo conflict, the financing need for the Kosovo crisis will be 2 billion dollars at least, it will be equal to 2.5% of the GDP in most affected six countries. In accordance with this recognition, they tried to change their foreign policies. For example, [15]in the case of Bulgaria, she has developed bilateral relation with most of the Balkan States since 1995, with Romania in 1995, with Croatia in January 1996, and with Albania, FYR Macedonia, Turkey and Greece. And most of countries followed similar pattern. Therefore, in the Balkan States, not multinational, but the net of a lot of bilateral cooperation was emerged. This is the first peculiarity of the new cooperation system.

              Secondly, the EU changed her mind too. From 1995, most of central and eastern countries applied their wish officially, and in 1997 the EU proposed “AGENDA 2000” as a answer toward them. Through these processes, the grant aid scheme PHARE was expanded all candidate countries, and at present, PHARE is separated three programme, ISPA, SAPPARD, and PHARE, by depending on their aims. Factors why the EU changed her attitude are obviously as same as the other Balkan States’ cases. So that, in the EU the cost of conflicts of neighboring was too big to deal with. According to the OECD, [16]compared with most affected six countries the direct economic damage of the Kosovo conflict is not so tremendous in Italy and Greece, who are a little far neighboring countries. However the cost of conflicts is related with not only the direct economic activities, but also social activities. For example, [17]the organized crime was expanded rapidly during the confusion of the Balkan States. According to the Europol, the present European heroin market is dominated by the Kosovo Albanian, and this situation is formed during the previous war in Yugoslavia. In addition, the refugee, who escape from the unstable Balkan States, create new serious social problems in the EU. Therefore, the EU could not ignore the unstable situation in this region. As a result of these changes, the strategic cooperation system was created and reinforced by the EU. The peculiarity of this cooperation system is based on the bilateral relation between the EU and each country. However at the same time, because all candidate countries should obey the EU’s suggestions, the EU can succeed in reforming even in high political policy area.

              At last, the international organizations which contain the EU and most of European countries try to support positively other Balkan countries who can not apply the accession process. The most significant example is the Stability Pact, which was launched in 1999 by most of main international organizations and supporting partners. The role of these organizations in the cooperation system is thought to adjust and reallocate the whole aid from every supporter toward the Balkan States for the purpose joining the EU.

              As a whole in this cooperation system the EU and EU’s programme scheme are main elements, and as a reinforcing element, the bilateral and the multilateral system are working. So far, this cooperation looks to work well. Most of the Balkan States try to integrate under the new name “Europe”.  

 

 

 

Weak Points of 21st Century’s Cooperation

              However, in spite of these efforts, this cooperation system is still immature, because of some critical factors. In this third section, I will explain about two main factors. One is about the relationship between Turkey and Greece, and the other is about the reforming assistance from the EU.

              Firstly, for the mature cooperation, the reconciliation between Turkey and Greece is essential. Since the Greece’s joining the EU, [18]Greece continued to be an unstable player in the EU, it was called “Black Sheep”. On the contrary, Turkey had a lot of problems with this “Black Sheep”, the Cyprus problem, the Aegean Sea problem. Therefore through 1990s these two countries did not cooperate for the stability, but accelerate the conflicts more deeply. For example, [19]Greece opposed strongly the name of Macedonia, [20]and after that in this region two alliances were emerging as well as the old age, one is the alliance among Greece, Yugoslavia which was dominated by Serbia, and Russian Federation, and the other contained Albania, Turkey and Macedonia.

              However especially since [21]1993, because of the success of Greece’s reforms, the relation has become much better than before. After her economic reform, the Greek political situation became matured. In spite of some dangerous factors, Turkey and Greece could avoid the real war. And at present, some practical cooperation is started. However, basically the balance between these two countries is kept by Turkish negative attitude toward the Balkan States, whose aim is avoiding the conflict with Greece. Actually, in most of all cooperation organizations, Turkey did not join the cooperation positively. However, because of this lack of the real cooperation between these countries, some unstable factors are still left in cold. For example, [22]the new pipeline projects, which will come from Burgas to Alexandroupolis, includes some dangerous possibility which will lead new conflict with Turkey, because this pipeline agreement leads a new axis which is leaded by new military agreement between Russia and Greece. Therefore, making not sham but real cooperation is essential for this region’s stability.

              Secondly, the programme scheme of the EU still has some problems. After the Dayton agreement, both the hard power, which means military force to prevent conflicts, and the soft power, which means concrete economic and political assistances, became to be prepared. However, especially in the soft power, the method how to reconstruct this conflict region is immature. For the true stability, it is said that, [23]the political self-determination, pluralistic democracies, multi-ethnicity, civil society, and economic development should be needed. However, the soft power did not accelerate this process so much, but made these countries depend on Foreign aid deeply. For example,[24] in Bosnia, where is flowed 1 billion dollars per year, about 20% of all state budgets were plundered, and this region is the center of the organized crime. So that, in spite of the plentiful amount of the aid, because of the scheme how to use these, the Balkan States is still unstable. In this point, the most important thing for the stability is [25]the balance between international engagement, and indigeous self dependence. Therefore, the direction of the whole aid still needs to be rectified.

 


3. The Concrete Policy to Access to the Balkan Cooperation

              In the chapter 1 and 2, I confirmed about the meaning to join the cooperation for the Balkan Stability and the present cooperation system in this region. Therefore, in this last chapter, I will think about two phase, one is the section which accelerate the process of restoring stability, the other is concrete polices to cooperate for restoring stability in this region.

The Cooperative Sector

              Firstly, I will think about the concrete method how to restore the stability in the Balkan States. Although most of articles agreed with the point that the macro economic stability is main factor to reform everything, concrete methods are diverse. However, in this report, I want to emphasize the possibility of the transport infrastructure programme which promote the cooperation in this region. Firstly, [26]the completing whole transport system in the Balkan States means stimulating investments and trades in this region. Secondly, for reinforcing the present cooperation system, this programme is proper. As I mentioned already, the present cooperation system is mainly supported by the EU assistance scheme based on the future accession. In other word, because the Balkan States could not build up their own region for themselves, the EU supported so heavily. However the main system of this EU cooperation is based on the bilateral relations between the EU and each country. Therefore in this system, the factor that deepens the interdependence of the Balkan States is lacked. At the same time, [27]in regard to previous conflicts, the disintegration of the nation sate should not be occurred. However because of the radical reform of both economy and politics, the border region might be kept leave alone. Therefore, because in this region the border region must not be a bottleneck for the stability, the transport infrastructure through all over the Balkan States is needed.

              However at the same time, some scholars criticized this cooperation of the transport sector as a new conflict stage in the Balkan States. [28]Firstly, as the whole Balkan transport infrastructure, the Trans-Balkan highway, which start from Varna-Sofia-Skopje-Tirana, was proposed. However, against this project, both Greece and Turkey proposed their own proposals. As a result of these reactions, the Balkan States accepted Turkish proposals, because it is more familiar than Greek one. In addition, they changed the name of the highway for only the Greece. Certainly one part of these criticizes are true, but most of are not accordant with the present situation. At present, [29]the TINA (Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment in Central and Eastern Europe), whose aim is estimating the cost of building transport infrastructure in all EU candidate countries, finished their estimate, and most of candidate countries started constructing these infrastructure under one of the EU’s assistance, “ISPA”. In these projects, all of my saying highway projects are included, [30]and the Greek one is financed by the EU as a TENs (Trans European Networks). Therefore, at present about the transport sector, we can say the possibility who lead the conflict is quite small.

The Concrete Policy How Can Turkey Join the Cooperation

              At last, I want to touch about the concrete policy about how Turkey can join the cooperation effectively. In this section, I will recommend the [31]TTFSE programmes, which was launched under the EU and the World Bank. This programme is financed by each government, the World Bank, and the United States. This programme’s objective is to facilitate the border equipments for updating their level to EU standards, which contain not only some infrastructure, but also technologies for reducing the corruption in the border. At present, most of the Balkan States joined this programme, except Turkey. In this last part, I will describe two reasons why this programme is valuable for Turkey, and how Turkey will take part in it.

              Firstly, this programme is fruitful for Turkey in two meanings. One is the meanings about the relation with Greece, and the other is the meaning about the Turkish national interest. As I mentioned above, the real peaceful relation between these two countries is critical for the stability of this region. For this purpose, this programme is efficient for both countries, because this programme build physical strong connection between Turkey and Greece. As I explained, the Greek new highway is one of the most important projects for Greece and the EU, and this project aim to connect from Ignonmentisa, which is located in Adrian Sea, to the border of Turkey. Therefore, the joining TTFSE means that strong transport infrastructure from Istanbul to Aegean Sea will be completed, and this complementation leads the real sharing the important transport system as a common resource. It is practical to this physical connection lead these two countries to go to the real cooperation.

              Secondly, in regard to Turkish national interests, this programme is valuable. At present, because Turkey faces a serious recession, she can not afford to allocate the budgetary contribution to the cooperation so much. However, in this programme, the most of budget will be financed by the international organizations. In addition, this programme’s main objective is to update the border administration level to EU standards. Therefore, it will lead Turkey to reach the EU in the Aquis about the external relation. And at last, this programme includes the possibility to stimulate the Balkan internal economic market. This possibility indicates that the Balkan States may be one of the important trade partners for Turkey.

              At last, I want to touch about the Turkish Foreign policy. However, the method how Turkey will join this programme is simple. To date, Turkey did not play the regional role so actively, but Turkey already took part in the [32]Southeast European Cooperative Initiative, which has some effect to this programme. Therefore, applying to this programme thorough this cooperation is the best efficient strategy.
Conclusion

              In this essay, I described about the importance of Turkey’s joining the cooperation for the Stability in the Balkan States. As a whole, the present Turkish direction toward this region became positive. Yet, at the same time, Turkey is still suffered from some historical bitter experiences. However the age which was full of suspicion and distrust are going, and we must keep it away by reinforcing this region’s new cooperation system. It will mean Turkish one neighboring region will be stable. Therefore, in the long term point of view, this region’s stability will be fruitful for not only the region, but also Turkey. In addition, because there are a number of resources which Turkey can use for the stability, the cost of restoring stability is not so expensive for Turkey. Hence, this objective should be one of the highest priorities of Turkish Foreign Policies.

 

 

 


Bibliography

Articles

1.      Tsoukalis, Loukas. “Greece: like any other European country?.”, National Interest No. 55, Spring 1999, pp65-74

2.      Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter 1998, pp469-488

3.      Panpadereou, George. “Debalkanize the Balkans.”, New Perspectives Quarterly Vol. 18 No. 1, Winter 2001, pp43-46

4.      Bildt, Carl. “A second chance in the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol. 80 No. 1, Jan./Feb. 2001, pp148-158

5.      Bugajski, Janusz. “Balkan in dependence?.”, Washington Quarterly Vol. 23 No.4, Autumn 2000, pp177-192

6.      Steil, Benn.; Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol.78 No. 6, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105

7.      Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998, pp377-394

Documents

1.         “The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo Crisis: An Updated Assessment”,  INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff of the International Monetary Fund in consultation with the World Bank staff Approved by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid,  May 25, 1999

2.         “THE ROAD TO STABILITY AND PROSPERITY IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE: A REGIONAL STRATEGY PAPER”, Europe and Central Asia Region The World Bank, March 1, 2000

3.         “2001 REGULAR REPORT ON TURKEY’S PROGRESS TOWARDS ACCESSION”, European Commission, Nov 31, 2001

4.         Turkey and the EU”, EUROSTAT reported by TimAllen, May 2000

5.         “Trans European Transport Network 14 priority projects, project 7 Greek Motorway”, European Commission, 1998

News Articles

1.      Turkey and Greece sign Euro 2008 bid”, Reuters, Nov 16, 2001

2.      Ron Synovitz, “Romania/Bulgaria: Agreement On Transport Corridor Around Serbia”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., Mar 28, 2000

3.      Breffni O'Rourke, “Yugoslavia: OECD Says Kosovo Starting To Hurt Balkan Economies”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, May 19, 1999

4.      Robert McMahon, “UN: Balkan Instability Feeds Rise In Crime”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Jun 23, 2000

5.      Greece and Russia Agree to Work Closer in Oil and Gas Sectors”, DPA, Dec 7, 2001

6.      “Vladimir Putin Upholds Russia’s Cultural Traditions During Three-Day Visit to Greece”, Russian Observer.Com, Dec 6, 2001

HP references

Southeast Europe Cooperative Initiative; http://www.unece.org/seci/Welcome.html

Economic Reconstruction And Development in South East Europe;  http://www.seerecon.org/

Representation of the European Commission in Turkey; http://www.deltur.cec.eu.int/ 

Balkan Task Force; http://www.grid.unep.ch/btf/

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey; http://www.mfa.gov.tr/

United Nation Economic Commission for Europe; http://www.unece.org/

The EU Home Page about the enlargement toward Turkey;

                                                        http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/turkey/index.htm

TINA Home Page; http://www.tinavienna.at/



[1] “2001 REGULAR REPORT ON TURKEY’S PROGRESS TOWARDS ACCESSION”, European Commission, Nov 31, 2001, pp30-31

[2] “2001 REGULAR REPORT ON TURKEY’S PROGRESS TOWARDS ACCESSION”, European Commission, Nov 31, 2001, pp88-90

[3] Tsoukalis, Loukas. “Greece: like any other European country?.”, National Interest No. 55, Spring 1999, pp65-74

[4] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter 1998, pp469-488

[5]Turkey and Greece sign Euro 2008 bid”, Reuters, Nov 16, 2001

[6]  “2001 REGULAR REPORT ON TURKEY’S PROGRESS TOWARDS ACCESSION”, European Commission, Nov 31, 2001, pp88-90

[7]Turkey and the EU”, EUROSTAT reported by TimAllen, May 2000

[8] “The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo Crisis: An Updated Assessment”,  INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff of the International Monetary Fund in consultation with the World Bank staff Approved by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid,  May 25, 1999

[9] Breffni O'Rourke, “Yugoslavia: OECD Says Kosovo Starting To Hurt Balkan Economies”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, 19 May 1999

[10] see annex map 1

[11] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998, pp377-394

[12] Steil, Benn.; Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol.78 No. 6, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105

[13] Steil, Benn.; Woodward, Susan L. “A Europe “new deal ” for the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol.78 No. 6, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp95-105

[14] “The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo Crisis: An Updated Assessment”,  INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND repared by staff of the International Monetary Fund in consultation with the World Bank staff Approved by Michael C. Deppler and G. Russell Kincaid,  May 25, 1999

[15] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998, pp377-394

[16] Breffni O'Rourke, “Yugoslavia: OECD Says Kosovo Starting To Hurt Balkan Economies”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, May 19, 1999

[17] Robert McMahon, “UN: Balkan Instability Feeds Rise In Crime”, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Jun 23, 2000

[18] Tsoukalis, Loukas. “Greece: like any other European country?.”, National Interest No. 55, Spring 1999, pp65-74

[19] same resource

[20] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter 1998, pp469-488

[21] same resource

[22] “Vladimir Putin Upholds Russia’s Cultural Traditions During Three-Day Visit to Greece”, Russian Observer.Com, Dec 6, 2001

[23] Bugajski, Janusz. “Balkan in dependence?.”, Washington Quarterly Vol. 23 No.4, Autumn 2000, pp177-192

[24] same resource

[25] same resource

[26] Kondonis, Haralambos. “Prospects for Balkan cooperation after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.”, East Europe Quarterly Vol. 32, No.3, Fall 1998, pp377-394

[27] Bildt, Carl. “A second chance in the Balkans.”, Foreign Affairs Vol. 80 No. 1, Jan./Feb. 2001, pp148-158

[28] Turan, Ilter; Barlas, Dilek. “Turkish-Greek balance: a key to peace and cooperation in the Balkans.”, East European Quarterly Vol. 32 No. 4, Winter 1998, pp469-488

[29]  refer the following TINA  HP; http://www.tinavienna.at/ 

[30] “Trans European Transport Network 14 priority projects, project 7 Greek Motorway”, European Commission, 1998

[32] refer the following HP; http://www.unece.org/seci/seci.htm