Research
Achievement Report
Project name: Threats and opportunities presented by the
modern rural-urban migration in Mongolia
Research year: 2011
Researcher: BATTUMUR
Bulgantamir, 81125107
Affiliation: Graduate
School of Media and Governance, HC Program, EI Special Course,
Year of study: M1
1.
Research
background
Mongolia
is experiencing domestic migration. The observed trend is that nomadic
livestock herders are moving to urban areas in general, and especially to
Ulaanbaatar. In 10 years from 2000 to 2010, while the total national population
was increasing at an average rate of 1.5 percent per year, the population of
Ulaanbaatar, the capital city, has been increasing at 3.9 percent annually, and
the rural population has been declining at -0.1 percent annually.
In
2010, the traditional livestock husbandry sector of Mongolia employed 40% of
the population, produced 30% of agricultural gross production, and accounted
for 20% of the country’s exports. Large scale inflow of herders into urban
areas in search of wage employment means that the livelihood of herders, who
comprise a big social class in Mongolia, has become vulnerable and
unacceptable. Besides the livelihood issues of herders, this phenomenon is impacting
the outputs of the national livestock sector, national food security, and
pressing the urban carrying capacity to the limits.
2.
Research purpose and expected outputs
The
purpose of the fieldwork is to clarify the reasons and realities that are making
the nomadic livestock herders abandon their traditional livelihood and dare the
uncertainty of unfamiliar urban lifestyle. Finding out these reasons would shed
light on ways to support the livelihood of herders, and help in deliberating
appropriate policies to advance the efficiency and outputs of the livestock
sector and ensure food security of the country.
The ultimate output of the research would be deep
understanding of herders’ livelihood conditions, and the environmental and
social pressures that trigger their decision to move. Knowing what leads to
herders’ decision to move would help control future level of migration and
scope of activities in the animal husbandry sector.
3. Field research targets
and methods
With the above purpose in mind, I
have conducted my first field research in Tsetserleg – a town of
20,000 and capital of Arhangai province, and Tovshruuleh soum – a rural
pastureland area in the same area. Tovshruuleh soum is experiencing intensive
outmigration of the population and, anecdotally, severe climate change.
In
total, I interviewed 35 households that can be categorized
as follows:
·
In Tsetserleg town, the targets of my study were the
households that immigrated into the town within the past 10 years.
·
In Tovshruuleh soum, I interviewed herder households
to learn the realities that are driving people out of that area.
I conducted my fieldwork using the
snowball sampling method. (“In sociology and statistics research, snowball sampling is a non-probability
sampling technique where existing study subject recruit future subjects from among their
acquaintances. Thus the sample group appears to grow like a rolling snowball”[1]).
Although my research was largely qualitative, I tried
to facilitate the analysis of the data as much as possible through introducing
quantitative methodologies and balancing structured interviews with open-ended
ones.
4. Major findings
The
causes of migration were determined to be the climate change and natural
disasters going on in the sending area, livelihood and market needs of the
households, demographic aspects of the households such as having school age
children or elderly in the household, and social aspects such as having or not
having a social network of relatives and friends to support in the sending or
receiving areas. The initial and intuitive findings and conclusions of the
previous fieldwork are as follows:
a.
All herder households interviewed had lost about 70%
of their livestock during the severe winter disaster of 2010.
b.
The main “external” reasons for migration:
– Severe
climate (climate change)
– Inadequate
access to markets to “cash-in” from livestock products.
c.
There are the household’s “internal”
characteristics and vulnerabilities that make some households move and some
stay.
– Number
of livestock
– Availability
of regular cash income / pensioner
– Presence
of school age children who are soon to become college student
– Family
network in the sending area and receiving area
– Education
level and age
d.
However, the general trend is that every household
wants their children to become “educated and urban”.
e.
The following strategies
would improve herders’ livelihood and the country’s livestock sector in
general:
· Efficiently linking herders to the external
markets to increase their regular cash income;
· Adapt the current traditional pasturalist
livelihood to climate change by intensifying it and making it more “ranch-like”.
5.
Plan
for completing the research
To check the accuracy of
and render academic validity to the initial findings, hypotheses, and
conclusions drawn from the first field research, I am planning to conduct the
second field research in summer 2012. In the process, the initial findings will
gain more accuracy and academic significance.
I am planning to pinpoint
the factors that are making nomadic livestock herding mode of livelihood
infeasible in the research target areas. More specifically, the following 2
main findings of the previous field research will be studied in more detail
with better sampling and survey methodologies.
a. Task
1 for the next fieldwork: Rank the influence of the following internal factors
on the decision to move by representing the “minimum requirements” for staying
in a “numeric” form.
The following “internal” characteristics and vulnerabilities of
a household have been found to influence the household’s decision to move or
stay.
·
Having less than a certain “floor” number of
livestock required for livelihood;
·
Having cash income that is less than the “minimum”
cash income required for livelihood;
·
Having 1-2 or more college students in the
household;
·
Absence of family network in the homeland (relatives
moving away) ;
·
Having certain education and being young also makes
herders more mobile.
b. Task
2 for the next fieldwork: Find out the following:
· Factors that are separating herders from the
markets;
· Factors that are making livestock vulnerable
to the current changing climate;
· Some methods that herders may already know for
the solution of these issues.